Of late, the winning political formula in Europe is simple: Promise to ease heavy tax and regulatory burdens and shake up stagnant economies.
Across the Continent, the left is in disarray. France’s Socialist Party, which last won a Presidential election in the 1980s, refuses to move to the center — and further sinks in the polls.
Even in a recession so widely attributed to unfettered capitalism, socialists are unable to take advantage. Consider the results last week of elections for the European Parliament. Center-right parties gained in Germany, France, Italy, Belgium, Britain, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain and across most of eastern Europe.
Before the Obama Administration Euro-fits the U.S. economy, Americans need to know that this [leftist] model saps economic dynamism and is nearly impossible to fix.
For decades, Europeans have been frustrated with low growth, chronic unemployment and fading competitiveness. The answers tend to come from the right, and successful center-left politicians have embraced market reforms (think Tony Blair). On the Huffington Post earlier this week, columnist Robert Kuttner bemoaned the left’s collapse in Europe: “American progressives used to look longingly to Europe, with its stronger trade unions and its more comprehensive social protections. Those are still there, but unraveling under assault.” Failure will do that.
BusinessWeek - Local residents joke about the real estate market in Omaha. “We didn’t get invited to the party,” they say, “and we don’t have a hangover.” The proof: Prices slipped less than 1% in Nebraska’s biggest city last year, compared with an 18% drop for the U.S.
Now Omaha looks poised to tromp the U.S. on the upside. While responsible lending practices and a dearth of speculation have supported the market in recent years, jobs will make all the difference in the future. Unemployment in Omaha hovers around 4%, less than half the national average. Last year Omaha added 2,700 new jobs as the U.S. lost 3 million. The continued strong prospects for job growth in Omaha means prices should rise faster than the U.S. average.
Meanwhile, high-tech companies are flocking to the Omaha area, which boasts an abundance of land and power, an extensive fiber-optic network, and a favorable tax regime.
“…for a nation to try to tax itself into prosperity is like a man standing in a bucket and trying to lift himself up by the handle.” - Winston Churchill
First Trust- While some forecasters look for a rising jobless rate and more housing foreclosures to kill off a nascent recovery, we believe the panic is over and a V-shaped economic recovery is underway. It is in its earliest stages, which means plenty of economic indicators have yet to turn positive, but the signs of a strong bounce off the panic lows are all around us.
As this unfolds in the months ahead, the stock market should rise back to its pre-panic levels. It took seven months for the Dow to fall from 11,000 to 6,500, and it is very possible that it could go back to that level in the same seven months. However, this would be unprecedented. A more reasonable forecast is that it takes until mid-2010 for stock prices to rise back to levels last seen in September 2008.
DISCLAIMER: Information and analysis in Manarin Investment Counsel, Ltd. communications is compiled from sources believed to be reliable but its accuracy or profitability cannot be guaranteed. All Manarin Investment Counsel, Ltd. communications are intended solely for informational and educational purposes and are not to be deemed a prospectus or solicitation of orders, nor does it purport to provide legal, tax or individual investment or business advice. Readers should consult with expert legal, tax, business and financial counsel before taking any action. Advisory services offered through Manarin Investment Counsel, Ltd., an SEC Registered Investment Advisory Firm.