Manarin On Money » Economy

A Double Dip Recession Debate

Manarin Investment Counsel — Mon, 21 Jun 2010 14:46:14 +0000

Economists Art Laffer and Brian Wesbury debate the chances we will see a double dip recession in our near future.

A Clear Explanation of Austrian vs Keynesian Economics

Manarin Investment Counsel — Tue, 27 Apr 2010 14:10:44 +0000

The two conflicting models of economics are the Austrian and Keynesian models. The Keynesian model is the policy of the federal government and is used by nearly all of the financial media.

The former is the most free market economic analysis and is the model we use in making our investment decisions. Few people know of or understand this model because it receives little, if any, mainstream attention.

The below three-minute video offers a layman’s understanding of these economic models and the impact each has on your money:

Federal Reserve Decisions and the Threat of Inflation – Tom Kerins & Tim Bastian

Manarin Investment Counsel — Sun, 28 Feb 2010 22:40:29 +0000

Manarin Investment Counsel advisors Tom Kerins and Tim Bastian share their thoughts on a handful of financial topics.

Reasons Consumer Spending Will Likely Grow in 2010

Manarin Investment Counsel — Wed, 17 Feb 2010 14:15:23 +0000

While most economic pundits think we will see a slowdown in consumer spending this year, signs are pointing that chances are good we will see spending move in the opposite direction. Here’s why:

(1) Consumer incomes are rebounding.

(2) Consumers have reduced their financial obligations.

(3) The personal saving rate is higher.

(4) Home building is rising again.

(5) Autos still selling slower than the scrappage rate.

- From economists Brian Wesbury and Bob Stein in this Research Report.

How Big Government Has Led to the Downfall of Detroit

Manarin Investment Counsel — Wed, 13 Jan 2010 21:04:21 +0000

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Roland and Aron in the Omaha World-Herald

Manarin Investment Counsel — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 17:49:00 +0000

Aron and I had a good chat with Joe Ruff recently at the World-Herald on what has taken place during the last 18 months in the market and economy.

Click here to read the full article.

Economic Recovery, Government Stimulus, and the Conservatives’ Mistake

Manarin Investment Counsel — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 20:07:36 +0000

GDP for the third quarter was released. Real gross domestic product was up 3.5% at an annualized rate. Let’s compare that to the first quarter when it was falling at a 6.4% annualized rate. So in other words, from the trough to where we are today, we have a 9.9% swing in economic activity. That is a V-shaped recovery.

That’s economist Brian Wesbury in his recent Wesbury 101 video on why we appear to be in the midst of a V-shaped economic recovery. Later he says why the government’s stimulus spending has hurt this process:

… every dollar the government spends it has to tax or borrow from someone else which means they can’t spend it. I believe the more the government spends, the more they take from the private sector, the slower economic growth is. In other words, what I’m saying is the economy would be even stronger today if it weren’t for the stimulus spending.

And finally, he touches on the error being made by conservatives in Washington:

Today they’re on the defensive. They’re trying to argue that GDP was not good, that it was only because of Cash for Clunkers and only because of the First Time Home Buyers Tax Credit that the economy is growing. And once those go away, in fact the economy will slow down and we’ll find out that things aren’t really as good as they should be. This is a strange place for conservatives to be in. I think they’re making a big mistake in this argument because the economy is highly likely to stay strong for the next 12 to 18 months.

I can’t say there is much here to disagree with.

Housing Industry, Consumer Confidence, Auto Sales, and Employment

Manarin Investment Counsel — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 21:09:27 +0000

Brian Wesbury and Bob Stein, both economists at First Trust, offer outlook on a few key economic topics. Here’s a handful of grafs I’ve pulled from their recent article that you won’t hear from the media establishment:

New home sales have risen for five straight months. Existing home sales are up in four of the last five months – and given strong figures on pending home sales in August – should be up substantially in September. After declining for 39 straight months, private construction of new homes increased for the third straight month in August. Meanwhile, home inventories are falling and given the low level of construction will continue to do so in the months ahead.
On consumer confidence, the small decline in September followed a large increase in August. And now that private-sector wages and salaries are starting to rise again, we think consumer optimism will start to trump pessimism in the months ahead.
On auto sales, everyone knew auto sales in July/August were artificially high due to “cash for clunkers” and September would show a large drop. The only issue was how deep the drop would be. Though the September drop was larger than anticipated, we take this as a sign that a greater share of the sales that the clunkers law robbed from future months came out of September, meaning October and beyond will show less of a “clunkers” effect and higher rates of sales.
On the employment situation, we like to focus on what’s happening in the private sector. Private payrolls fell 210,000 in September, a bit larger than the 182,000 decline in August. But this happened back in June when payrolls fell 391,000, a bigger drop than in May when they fell 292,000. Stocks weakened on the June jobs report, but then strengthened as corporate profits showed larger than expected gains and economic data continued to improve.

Are We In the Early Stage of a V-Shaped Recovery?

Manarin Investment Counsel — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 20:26:13 +0000

Economist Brian Wesbury at First Trust makes a convincing case that we are in this video.

What $1 Trillion Looks Like

Manarin Investment Counsel — Wed, 29 Jul 2009 18:58:35 +0000