Lots of silly arguments on the economy are being made from both sides of the political aisle.  Here are some (slightly altered) paragraphs from an article I wrote last January to clarify the conventional thinking:

The infusion of what is called “loose money” is always a stimulating consequence for the economy in the short term.  The analogy I often use is pumping oxygenated blood into your body.

The downside to the Federal Reserve’s ability to create money out of nothing does cause malinvestment of capital as we’ve witnessed with the housing and banking fallouts.

Long term, creating money without limit always leads to increased prices and less buying power, which is a problem for people with the bulk of their financial assets in bonds, bank CDs, and other dollar-denominated investments.

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Everyone wants to be financially independent.

Everyone wants a safe investment portfolio.

But not everyone has real world financial safety.  Do you?

If I give you the choice between conventional financial safety and real world financial safety, which would you pick?  Or didn’t you know there was a difference?

Let me explain.

As a rookie stockbroker in the 1970s, I was instructed by my superiors to follow the conventional model of financial safety.  They said to me, “Roland, if you have a client that is 65 years old, you need to put 35 percent of their money in stocks and the remaining 65 percent in bonds and other dollar-based investments that are guaranteed and insured.”

For the mainstream this was (and today still is) considered the safest way to manage money, especially for retirees.

Here’s the conundrum - in the real world “safety” has a totally different meaning.  In the real world, financial safety is NOT the preservation of my principal.  It’s the preservation of my buying power.   

If you are old enough, you will remember the price of a new Mustang convertible when it debuted in the 1960s.  About $2,395.  In that day gold was trading at around $35 an ounce so it took about 69 ounces of gold to buy the Mustang. 

In the late 1960s, $5,000 would have bought you two new Mustangs.  If you had instead put your $5,000 in government bonds for “safe keeping” and taken the out in today, you would no longer be able to buy two brand new cars since the interest on your bonds has not kept pace with inflation and taxes. 

However, if you had invested your $5,000 in a tangible asset such as gold, your buying power would have been maintained since 69 ounces of gold will today still buy you a new car.  (Note: Gold is a terrible investment and I only recommend it as a hedge against inflation.) 

And now for a quick history lesson.

For the last 100 years or so, the financial industry has considered dollar-based investments such as bonds, bank CDs, and fixed annuities to be among the safest options available.  There was a time when this actually was true.

Over a centruy ago when the federal government issued U.S. Savings Bonds, those bonds were backed by gold and investors were certain their buying power would be preserved. 

As long as the dollar was on the gold standard, it was.

Then came 1971 and Richard Nixon removed the final link between gold and the dollar while the Fed continued creating dollars out of thin air to pay for the Vietnam War.

But what remained was the common belief that dollar-based investments were still sound, long-term assets.

Important Point For Investors: History teaches that when a currency is no longer backed by a tangible asset and its value is at the mercy of government decisions, all investments that are claims on that currency must be viewed as speculations.

Most people today have limited background in monetary and economic history.  They fail to understand that those dollar-based investments they own carry a risk level that would have scared the bejeezus out of people living when the dollar was on the gold standard.

Perhaps a nice way to summarize this article is: Real world financial safety is so simple that most investors fail to apply this little rule of wealth preservation to their financial decisions.  Then one day they wake to realize the buying power of their portfolio has been confiscated and they have no clue why. 

Sad.

My hope is this will never be your personal fate.  So long as you stay informed, I like your odds.

There was a time in our nation’s history that gold was the basis for our monetary system.  And it wasn’t just us.  Most other currencies around the world have had some link to gold at one time or another. 

As long as a currency is linked to gold, the value of people’s paper money savings is maintained since gold cannot be created on a printing press.  But that’s not how the system is set up today.  We no longer have a link to gold and the dollar is now just a piece of government paper that can be printed without limit.

Consider this:  Since 2001, the dollar exchange rate has been on a downward slide and the price of an ounce of gold has climbed from $271 to about $860.  That means seven years ago the dollar was worth 1/271st an ounce of gold whereas today it is only worth 1/860th an ounce of gold. 

How much lower can the dollar go?  I have no clue but what I do know is that when it comes to a hedge against our currency’s depreciation, there is nothing I like better than gold.

But not many people today view gold as real money.  I’m not shocked because you would have to be at least 74 years old to have lived during a time when a gold coin was commonly accepted as currency.  The rest of the public continue to view money as the paper variety that slowly loses value year after year. 

This may explain why investors often flee tangible assets during a stock market correction for the perceived safety of dollar-based investments, namely cash and U.S. Treasuries. 

To me, the idea of a dollar-based asset offer any level of long-term financial safety holds as much reliability as Hillary Clinton tomorrow announcing her allegiance to the Libertarian Party.  But I digress . . .

Other investors hedge the risk of a falling dollar by investing in the Euro.  It’s a strategy I don’t want to use with my money because then the portfolio is tied to the far-left European economy and if the dollar is on the verge of extinction, by no means do I want the safety of my wealth resting on a paper money managed by foreign politicians. 

So here’s the truth:  Gold is still the world’s defacto currency. 

If tomorrow a financial panic breaks out in the corner of the world that takes out the dollar, I am highly confident that the haven investors will flock to will be gold-related investments and other non dollar-based assets.  Investors who are broadly diversified in those areas will likely be heavily rewarded. 

The way I see it, you and I have no control over the government decisions that impact the dollar’s value so we might as well continue profiting from Washington’s blunders.