Jun 10 2009
The Months Ahead
First Trust - While some forecasters look for a rising jobless rate and more housing foreclosures to kill off a nascent recovery, we believe the panic is over and a V-shaped economic recovery is underway. It is in its earliest stages, which means plenty of economic indicators have yet to turn positive, but the signs of a strong bounce off the panic lows are all around us.
As this unfolds in the months ahead, the stock market should rise back to its pre-panic levels. It took seven months for the Dow to fall from 11,000 to 6,500, and it is very possible that it could go back to that level in the same seven months. However, this would be unprecedented. A more reasonable forecast is that it takes until mid-2010 for stock prices to rise back to levels last seen in September 2008.
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